Analysis: How BJP Plans to Punch Holes in AAP's vote bank

Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab with 42 per cent of the vote and 92 seats. Four years later, that majority looks less solid. The BJP has taken in three AAP legislators - Kunwar Vijay Pratap Singh, Chetan Singh Jouramajra and Harmeet Singh Pathanmajra - who bring local networks and a direct line into the rural and working-class voters who put AAP in power.

At the same time, the BJP's own vote share has nearly tripled, and talks of a renewed alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal are back on the table. Together, these moves give the opposition something it lacked last time: A way to reach constituencies that once looked locked.In 2022, the Congress finished second with 23 per cent votes and 18 seats. The Shiromani Akali Dal managed 18.4 per cent but only three seats.

The BJP scraped 6.6 per cent and two seats. Four years on, that map is fraying.The AAP MLAs who quit can bring Amritsar North, Samana and Sanour, into the BJP fold.