Cut off from Europe, Russia will have to rewire its Arctic gas trade

An EU ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting Jan. 1, 2027 will force Moscow to find new buyers for exports from Yamal, its flagship Arctic project, and new ways to ship the gas. Yamal’s LNG, gas that is cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship, goes west through the Kara and Barents seas, around northern Norway and into European waters.

Between January and October 2026, 81% of Yamal’s recorded deliveries were destined for Europe as companies scrambled to get ahead of the upcoming ban, according to new analysis by the NGO Urgewald. It estimates Europe’s bill for that period at €8.7 billion, already above its estimate of €7.2 billion for all of 2025. The ban will end the long-term contracts that still tie Yamal to Europe.

Russia will have to redirect the gas, most likely to buyers in Asia, and reorganize the shipping network to reach them. Longer voyages mean higher costs and fewer trips per tanker each year because of the distance.