The ANC’s implosion was decades in the making

South African statesman, former Premier of the Western Cape, ANC National Executive Committee member and two-term Ambassador to the United States. When the expected implosion of the African National Congress (ANC) came in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, it was still surprisingly dramatic. The ANC remained the largest political party, but its share of the popular vote declined to 32.5 percent, essentially leaving it a rural party where its governance power is not entirely dependent on coalition partners.

It is now a Black African party without minority voters. Significant elements of the Black middle class and sections of the Black African rural and working classes showed disaffection through defection and abstention. This leaves an ANC dependent on other parties for coalitions in the urban metros and cities, while facing a confident and emboldened white community, quite surprised at how easily Black power could be diluted so soon after apartheid.

But the seeds of this implosion were sown over three nine-year leadership phases.